Related: EA Forum comments about this argument.
- The entire course of the future matters (more)
- Present-day interventions will bear on the entire course of the future, out to the far future
- The effects of present-day interventions on far-future outcomes are very hard to predict
- Any model of an intervention's effectiveness that doesn't include far-future effects isn't taking into account the bulk of the effects of the intervention
- Any model that includes far-future effects isn't believable because these effects are very difficult to predict accurately
I want to think more about this. If you see a place where my reasoning is wrong, drop me a line.